By Chris Sabga
As I've done for the past several years, I will go through the nominees and then analyze what I feel are the "Silver Screen Surprises" for each of the main categories.
Which nominations – and snubs – surprised me?
And the Oscar goes to...
Best Picture
"Black Panther"
"BlacKkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"The Favourite"
"Green Book"
"Roma"
"A Star Is Born"
"Vice"
Surprises: I expected "Crazy Rich Asians" to be nominated for Best Picture, but not only did it fail to make an appearance in this category, it was completely shut out of the Oscars in general. What happened?
There was minor intrigue about whether "Black Panther" would actually get a Best Picture nomination after a "Most Popular Movie" Oscar was briefly considered – seemingly for this movie – only to be scrapped after massive backlash.
Will this be a three-way contest between "Black Panther," "BlacKkKlansman," and "Green Book" – or will "Roma" sweep in and spoil their chances?
"Roma's" inclusion is a huge victory for Netflix – and streaming in general – as the film received only a tiny theatrical release and was seen by most viewers at home. Theater owners have reason to be worried.
Lead Actor
Christian Bale, "Vice"
Bradley Cooper, "A Star Is Born"
Willem Dafoe, "At Eternity's Gate"
Rami Malek, "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Viggo Mortensen, "Green Book"
Surprises: This is possibly the least surprising of all the categories, but the actual winner might be a surprise in what is sure to be a tightly-contested race.
There was no chance in hell of Steve Carell scoring a nomination for "Welcome to Marwen" – a movie disliked by both viewers and critics (except me) – but he did the impossible and turned a very strange character into a sympathetic one. I think history will judge his performance kindly.
Lead Actress
Yalitza Aparicio, "Roma"
Glenn Close, "The Wife"
Lady Gaga, "A Star Is Born"
Olivia Colman, "The Favourite"
Melissa McCarthy, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Surprises: Not that I expected it, but Elsie Fisher was superb in "Eighth Grade" and more than deserved a nomination. Then again, I can understand the hang-up about not wanting to ruin a child actor's life by giving her too much too soon. That would be even worse than middle school.
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"
Adam Driver, "BlackKKlansman"
Sam Elliott, "A Star Is Born"
Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me"
Sam Rockwell, "Vice"
Surprises: Sam Elliott wasn't expecting to be nominated, so I wasn't expecting it either.
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "Vice"
Marina de Tavira, "Roma"
Regina King, "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Emma Stone, "The Favourite"
Rachel Weisz, "The Favourite"
Surprises: Meryl Streep wasn't nominated for "Mary Poppins Returns." She's always nominated. Okay, I'm only kidding – somewhat!
As I mentioned above, "Crazy Rich Asians" is nowhere to be found this year. At the very least, Michelle Yeoh should have had this category sewn up.
Director
Spike Lee, "BlacKkKlansman"
Pawel Pawlikowski, "Cold War"
Yorgos Lanthimos, "The Favourite"
Alfonso Cuarón, "Roma"
Adam McKay, "Vice"
Surprises: Bradley Cooper was widely expected to be among the nominees in this category for "A Star is Born," but I guess a star wasn't born in this case.
Animated Feature
"Incredibles 2"
"Isle of Dogs"
"Mirai"
"Ralph Breaks the Internet"
"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse"
Surprises: Don't be surprised when "Spider-Man" wins.
I'm not sure "Welcome to Marwen" would even be eligible for this category considering that it has live action sequences too, but I personally found the animation impressive.
Original Screenplay
"First Reformed"
"Green Book"
"Roma"
"The Favourite"
"Vice"
Surprises: Bo Burnham was robbed – I guess the writing in "Eighth Grade" wasn't "flashy" enough for the Academy?
Best Documentary Feature
"Free Solo"
"Hale County This Morning, This Evening"
"Minding the Gap"
"Of Fathers and Sons"
"RBG"
Surprises: It's not a good day in the neighborhood, as the Mr. Rogers documentary "Won't You Be My Neighbor?" was surprisingly snubbed.
_____
Other thoughts: Kevin Hart was originally scheduled to host the ceremony, until he stepped down after old homophobic jokes of his surfaced. No one replaced him. Why? Probably because it's a thankless job with very little upside, especially with the way ratings have steadily declined over the years. The show is a slog to watch at the best of times, so how will it work without a host to break up the monotony? Kevin Hart would have done a good job, but he botched his "apology" tour with a series of clumsy foot-in-mouth non-apologies and justifications. Not even Ellen's endorsement could save him. The question now becomes, who will save us from four-and-a-half hours of self-congratulatory mind-numbing boredom.
_____
The rest of the categories and nominees are:
Adapted Screenplay
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"BlacKkKlansman"
"Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"A Star Is Born"
Animated Short
"Animal Behaviour"
"Bao"
"Late Afternoon"
"One Small Step"
"Weekends"
Cinematography
"Cold War"
"The Favourite"
"Never Look Away"
"Roma"
"A Star Is Born"
Best Documentary Short Subject
"Black Sheep"
"End Game"
"Lifeboat"
"A Night at the Garden"
"Period. End of Sentence."
Best Live Action Short Film
"Detainment"
"Fauve"
"Marguerite"
"Mother"
"Skin"
Best Foreign Language Film
"Capernaum"
"Cold War"
"Never Look Away"
"Roma"
"Shoplifters"
Film Editing
"BlacKkKlansman"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"Green Book"
"The Favourite"
"Vice"
Sound Editing
"A Quiet Place"
"Black Panther"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"First Man"
"Roma"
Sound Mixing
"Black Panther"
"Bohemian Rhapsody"
"First Man"
"Roma"
"A Star Is Born"
Production Design
"Black Panther"
"The Favourite"
"First Man"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Roma"
Original Score
"Black Panther"
"BlacKkKlansman"
"If Beale Street Could Talk"
"Isle of Dogs"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
Original Song
"All The Stars" from "Black Panther"
"I'll Fight" from "RBG"
"Shallow" from "A Star Is Born
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" from "Mary Poppins Returns"
"When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" from "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
Makeup and Hair
"Border"
"Mary Queen of Scots"
"Vice"
Costume Design
"The Ballad of Buster Scruggs"
"Black Panther"
"The Favourite"
"Mary Poppins Returns"
"Mary Queen of Scots"
Visual Effects
"Avengers: Infinity War"
"Christopher Robin"
"First Man"
"Ready Player One"
"Solo: A Star Wars Story"
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